**this is a transcript from Michele Schneider’s Market Minute Market analysis from Friday, 4.1.11. Friday ended an interesting week so we thought we’d share Michele’s quick analysis of the major markets and all the major ETFs covering the major stock market sectors and industries. You don’t need to own investments or trades ETFs. This analysis covers major industries so if you have mutual fund investments in these areas this analysis would be useful too.
SPY closed up half a percent with an Accumulation day in volume. We are now looking at four accumulation days over the last two weeks which generally is a very bullish sign. Advancers versus decliners indicates a bit overbought here, but as far as I can tell, confidence is coming back into the market as many stocks and ETF’s rallied to new all-time highs last week. We do have some resistance at 133.90 with a teeny gap still left to fill at 134.06 from February 18. Major support is now at 132.35 based on the lows made last Wednesday and Thursday. For all intensive purposes, any dips at this point should be received as good buying opportunities.
QQQQ closed up .17% on Friday with yet its fourth accumulation day in volume. The adaptive moving average is now touching and about to take out the 50 day moving average. This too has a gap to fill from the same day up to 58.50 which now seems like a good next target.
And of course, IWM continues to lead the way. Now 83.77 swing hi from February 18, should be support. And since this is on new all-time highs can only guess at resistance but based on the measured move there is no reason why we couldn’t go up to 92 barring any unforeseen news disaster.
IBB began to go parabolic last week and has an interesting looking hammer candle from Friday. I still see a possibility of 110 as an ultimate goal, but it is also possible that we could dip back down to 98.70 area consolidate and still look great.
SMH closed Friday with a bearish engulfing pattern beneath the 50 and the adaptive moving average. This is still somewhat of a concern to me as typically semiconductors are leaders. This would be the one area that I would keep an eye on as it is either undervalued relative to the rest of the market or a screaming warning sign that things aren’t as bullish as they seem to be. The biggest losers were brought BRCM and INTC.
FAS closed above the 50 day moving average putting in an unconfirmed bullish phase. Therefore 30.90 will be a pivotal area for Monday especially on a closing basis. Under Friday’s low 30.66 would be cautious about the financial sector and look for potential shorts if the market is rolling over while a hold of 30.90 and an open above 31.15 indicates that we will try for the high 31.36 and if we get through that, are looking at a move up to 32 initially.
GLD came right into support around 137.65. If that holds, look at 138.30 the adaptive moving average as pivotal. The indicators for gold are still bullish.
SLV also looks to be consolidating with its wall of support at 35.75. A move back above 37.05 and we are just a few points away from the all-time high made on March 24 at 37.26. As this chart looks a bit better than GLD, I would be inclined to buy silver first.
FXE held 140, rallied above 141, and made new highs at 141.92 before settling at 141.66. Keep an eye on the dollar. On November 4 we had our last swing high at 142.28. If we get through there, good for commodities, with the next area of resistance not until we get to 144.20 where there is a gap that was left from January 14, 2010. At this point, unless FXE convincingly breaks beneath 140, the trend certainly looks like a weaker dollar for now.
TLT has been in a recovery phase since the market has recovered and is holding the 50 day moving average at 91.19. Above Friday’s hi 92.27 is the adaptive moving average. If it breaks above, consider a long position and anticipate a move up to 93.50 and possibly 94.94, the high that was made on March 16.
OIH Consolidating right near all-time high at 166.96. 163.15 is nearby support.
XLE had an inside day last Friday after making new all-time highs on Thursday at 80.97. Beneath 79.72 we might see a correction in energy, but above 80.69 Friday’s hi, anticipate will take out 80.97 and continue up.
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