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“Carry Trading” in the Forex Market

August 27, 2013 in Blog

Interest rates are an often forgotten topic when it comes to Forex, but when it comes to Carry Trades, interest rates should come to the forefront of the discussion.  Prior to the financial crisis of 2008, the carry trade was extremely popular, as different countries raised or lowered interest rates and tremendous opportunities existed for outsized gains.

At its core the carry trade relies on central banks to raise or maintain the rates of one country, while another country lowers its rates. These diverging rates allow you to buy the high interest rate currency, while selling the other. In effect you are going to be paid the high rate, while paying the lower rate, pocketing the difference. Although this barebones explanation makes it seem like an easy way to make money, traders must also be aware of potential changes in the exchange rates themselves, which can change drastically and turn a profitable carry trade into a big time loser.

Although the anticipated profits occur due to the difference in interest rates on certain currencies, one must also take into account a multitude of factors that can impact the trade. Factors such as: exchange rates, Central Bank actions, and economic indicators all play a role in the success or failure of a carry trade.  If there is uncertainty relating to the direction of the interest rate spread, or suspicion of a narrowing spread, then the carry trade may turn unprofitable quite suddenly, and must be entered into cautiously, with stop losses and take profits in place should something go wrong.  Central bank actions can often be difficult to judge and their decisions have blindsided investors in the past, so one must stay up to date on the mindset of these agencies relating to interest rates specifically. Economic indicators are a useful tool in estimating the direction of rates in a particular economy, but all data must be taken with a grain of salt.  In general, it is not as simple as just finding a currency pair with a wide interest rate spread; many other factors must be considered and monitored.

Historically, there have been many famous examples of great carry trade success stories, as well as a fair share of failures. From 2003-2004 one of the most popular trades was AUD/USD offering a positive spread of around 2.5%( with leverage 10X equivalent to 25%).  This 2.5% was also boosted by a 42% appreciation in the currency pair made this a perfect example of capital appreciation contributing to the anticipated yield gains. On the other end of the spectrum lie the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pairs circa 2008. As a result of the Subprime financial crisis, a sell off caused an approximately 45% price drop, making any carry trade profits irrelevant in the face of such tremendous capital losses.

Overall, the theory behind carry trade execution is quite straight forward, but there are many factors to consider and constant monitoring that must take place in order to ensure a profit.  Particular attention must be paid to the downside, in the form of exchange rate risk. If your pair is losing value, then your profit from the carry trade becomes negligible or non-existent.

 

About M2 Forex

M2 Forex is a customer-first forex brokerage offering extremely competitive pricing and commissions coupled with advanced technology solutions. M2 Forex was built in response to customer concerns about the current Forex market and lack of new broker offerings including: high/ inconsistent spreads, poor customer service, bad execution, and the lack of any value added products that clients actually want.  Our goal is to change what retail Forex traders perceive as value to actually providing value for our clients and traders without sacrificing pricing and execution on their accounts.

Correlation Trading in the Forex Market

August 1, 2013 in Blog

Markets move! But how can you identify what pairs move together and what pairs don’t? An important characteristic of currency exchange markets is correlations. On the extreme ends of the correlation spectrum are perfectly positive (+1) and perfectly negative (-1) correlation. A correlation of +1 signifies that two units move in perfect unison, while a correlation of -1 means that two units move directly opposite of each other. Although it is nearly impossible to come across perfect correlations in financial markets, it is the easiest way to illustrate the concept.

Identifying correlations in Forex markets is a very useful tool when taking positions on multiple currency pairs.  If you take net long positions on currency pairs with high positive correlation and the market moves against your positions, your account could realize a magnified loss..  Many traders have found unique methods and strategies that take advantage of correlation across multiple currency pairs.   If you’d like to try your hand at trading a correlation strategy for forex, we recommend testing your ideas in a demo account.

The easiest way to identify the correlation of two currency pairs is by looking at price charts. In the simplest sense you want to answer the question “What does Pair A do when pair B goes up, and vice versa?” Seems simple enough, but there is one catch. For example, lets say we are comparing EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Before we analyze the correlation, we need to realize what transactions we are proposing. In the first pair we want to buy EUR and sell USD, while in the second we want to buy USD and sell JPY.  If you take a close look you can see that we are opening a long and a short position on USD, therefore artificially we have a negative correlation between the two pairs, making the actual correlation of the two pairs outright somewhat useless in this scenario. The easiest way to avoid this problem is to analyze currency pairs with either 4 distinct currencies such as AUD/USD and EUR/GBP.When implementing a correlation based trading strategy, spreads are an important metric to consider. It behooves correlation traders to use a brokerage such as M2 Forex which offers low spreads  in order to lower transaction costs and enable traders to take advantage of smaller market movements if they so choose.

Once you are comfortable with the concept of correlation and its impact on currency pairs, there are a few useful applications to consider becoming familiar with.  One of the primary applications is taking advantage of correlations to develop trading strategies that take into account the relationship between certain pairs and how a trader can arbitrage that correlation, in other words, place opposing trades on two pairs which are typically highly correlated as they become “out of correlation” hoping to make a profit as the pairs slowly return to their typical correlation.   Another more exotic use is for the purpose of hedging. Although the NFA does not allow hedging in the traditional sense, you can employ correlation trading to create a custom, albeit imperfect hedge. This can be done once you identify currency pairs that move with a high correlation coefficient. Once you have identified such a combination you can go long one and short the other, depending on your specific strategy, and now you have a “hedged position”.  A popular example of this artificial hedging strategy can be seen in traders who may be long or short EUR/USD and either instead of or due to regulations cannot place a trade in the opposing direction in order to hedge their position will then take a position on the USD/CHF which is widely held to be the most correlated pair to the EUR/USD in absolute value terms.

One of the hottest topics throughout Forex has always been that of EAs (Expert Advisors).  One of the fastest growing subsets within that category are Correlation based EA’s. Having an understanding of currency pair correlation allows you to be a more informed consumer if you do purchase  a Correlation-based EA.  Perhaps you have your own idea for a correlation trading EA, if so there are a number of popular EA programming individuals and companies out there you could easily contact.  Alternatively, a few brokerages including M2 Forex offer programming services to their clients as an added benefit for live account holders.

The amount of currency pairs in the market, combined with the constant flow of news which moves prices can be overwhelming at times, but having a firm understanding of correlations between different pairs can be a very useful tool. When you know how one trade will react to the price movement of another, you have a distinct advantage over somebody who is not comfortable with the concept.  Education and staying ahead of the curve is a constant battle in Forex, and hopefully this article has familiarized you with one of the more complex and abstracts topics in the field.

Back Bay Futures and Forex

July 31, 2013 in

Compare Futures Brokers and Forex Brokers

As an Independent Introducing Broker (IB), Back Bay gives you a one stop shop to find the perfect futures or forex broker for your trading needs.  Do you need a brokerage account that allows naked options trading?  Do you need a free futures trading platform,  Do you want an instituional firm to invest in managed futures? We allow you to compare brokers.

Types of Accounts

Did you know that you can invest in futures and forex in your IRA. Most people choose to open an account as an individual, joint, corporate or trust.  We offer online discount, broker assisted and managed accounts.

Customer Focus

We put our clients first. A strong relationship is the foundation of any partnership, and Back Bay Futures is dedicated to making sure you are receiving the maximum value from your investment. Understanding your needs and providing trading solutions as a customer of ours is critical. Our client research services can provide you with an extensive view of the Futures market. These services include detailed information on industry trends, NFA regulatory changes, broker promotions, new trading options, and an honest opinion of 3rd party provider options. Our clients know that they are our investment.

Regulation

NFABack Bay Futures is the futures arm of Back Bay FX Services, LLC (BBFX).  We are an National Futures Association (NFA) member, and registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA)/ Independent Introducing Broker (IB) with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Getting Over a Trading Slump: Manage Your Psychological Capital

May 22, 2013 in Trading Step 3: Execution, Tutorials

There’s one thing you can do okay so here’s something for you guys. The psychology section in the training program, I talk a lot about how to just have rock-solid psychology, confidence, the right mentality, how to think about things long-term all that stuff, right? How to welcome your emotions. All those things.

But at the end of the day, nothing will give you more confidence than good results. Right? You’re not going to be like those top psychology gurus that says “Oh, you can be a Zen Master.” No. Well, when things things are going bad, you’re going to feel bad and that’s normal. And when you’re doing well and trading well and seen results you’re obviously going to feel more confidence. It’s like sports. Which athletes feel more confident? Obviously the ones that are not only following correct process but are also seeing the results.

So one thing that you can do if you’re in a slump is you basically you always do want to maximize profit potential, then think of a pure process. But sometimes when you’re in a slump you might want to change your change your mind set and make it about managing your confidence during the slump.

And sometimes the best way to do that is to get some wins under your belt. For instance, lets say you got in a short trade or a long trade or whatever and you see a pretty big target for it. But it’s not nearly at your target yet, it’s giving you a few points of profit and just hang in there. Well usually I would say, no, do the right thing. Do the correct process and let it go to your profit target. But, if you’re in a slump, it’s nice sometimes to bag some winners, to ring the cash register at a time to get your confidence back up. So instead of letting this whole thing potentially reversing go back to break even and not give you a profit even though you called it right, if you’re in a slump that’s ok. Manage your own psychology too.

It’s not always about maximizing your capital. There’s something Jeanne Shaw, who is a great trading psychologist, she talks about psychological capital. Sometimes it makes sense to manage your psychological capital. Right? And it makes sense to bag a winner. Book the profit and feel good about it. Right? A couple those little ones can give you confidence that hey, I’m not just losing losing losing losing.

The key, though, is not to turn it into the habit were now you’re always taking tiny winners just to feel good. And so, that’s something you can do that helps. I used to be against this kind of thinking.

I used to think, no, we got a always do the right thing but you find it after a while you got a measure of psychology. It’s funny that you ask this , me and Awais were having this conversation just a couple days ago and were talking about it. He was talking about psychological capital and I was like yeah, you know what, you have a point.

Sometimes it just makes sense to manage your own psychology, just don’t get in the habit of always then trading incorrect process just a few emotionally good.

So only the times when you need it. Then when your psychology is back in gear then you can flip on the switch and just be all the correct process and be aggressive and all that.

The other thing about that is that even though taking them non purely correct exit might not be the most profit maximizing the long term for you in this instance, the confidence it gives you that you just ring the cash register changes your mental state. And since you’re a discretionary trader and discretion is all about our mental state, in can actually end up being the highest profit thing long-term because if you haven’t done it, but it was in a winner and usually stay negative and you don’t see the next trade and you under estimate the next one and so on, and it becomes bad and you keep losing.

So sometimes it’s might seem like it’s not the best long-term action for account balance in terms of true process, but when you factor in psychology it’ll help.

The post How to Get Over a Trading Slump appeared first on OpenTrader Pro Trading Blog.

Day 10: The Mystery that Controls Stock Prices – Supply & Demand

May 3, 2013 in Explanations, Investing Step 1: Evaluate, Stock Market in 100 Days, Trading Step 1: Find Opportunities

Anyone that’s paid the slightest attention to the stock market knows price isn’t directly tied to a company’s business. Stock prices, commodity prices like oil and gold, and even bond prices aren’t directly tied to the economy either. Yes, fundamental factors such as a company’s business performance and economic conditions do matter, but there’s something else in between that controls the seemingly random ups and downs in prices.

That mysterious gear that directly controls stock price is the supply and demand of the stock itself as an investment choice, not the value of the company.

This is the most important truth for any investor in any market.  Take a moment to let that sink in. From this point forward, this is how you view all investing and trading. The same applies to investing in commodities, bonds, futures, forex, or real estate.

Thinking of stocks like real estate, the quality and location of a home, just like the quality and business positioning of a company, are considerations for the price. In the end, home prices are based on the supply and demand of homes. If no one wants to buy your home or no one can afford your home, there’s no demand.  You can’t sell the home no matter how magnificent the furnishings are or how great the location. To sell the home, you must keep lowering your offering price to a price a buyer is willing to bid for.

This is the core of how the stock market, real estate market, job market, and even Craigslist work. It doesn’t matter what the buyer or seller think the price of something should be. The price is whatever both buyer and seller agree on to make a transaction. As a seller, if you don’t sell your inventory, whether it be toys on Ebay or stocks in your portfolio, you can’t get cash you can use. The inventory temporarily has no value as it just sits there collecting dust.

Let’s look at how this works for stocks. But remember, the same applies to other assets you can put your money in such as options, futures, forex, commodities, bonds, and real estate. In fact, these compete with stocks for your money. Something to think about.

What Affects Stock Prices (by Affecting Supply and Demand of Stocks)?

Whether you’re investing to build wealth or trading for income, this saying applies:

“Only price pays”

If you need cash, it doesn’t matter if you own a million dollar home you can’t sell. This is why investors and traders alike should apply the basics of technical analysis, aka supply and demand analysis, aka price and volume analysis.

Asset allocation. Top reason factor moving stock prices, commodity prices, bond prices, and other markets up and down. Think of what you do with your investments and financial planning. If you need money, you may cash out some of your investments. If you sold a house or got a bonus, you may add to your investments. These personal decisions have nothing to do with the companies you invest in!  Sure, you’re just 1 person, but everyone does something similar. Multiply you by a million and that’s a big effect on the markets.

Portfolio Management. No one has unlimited amounts of money to invest or trade. So you, or the portfolio managers of your mutual funds, must decide on how to allocate the money set aside for investments. Even if a company is great, you don’t have unlimited funds to keep buying that one company. Even if technology stocks are doing great, diversification tells you to keep some money in dividend stocks or bonds for safety. So a certain stock prices may not do as well as the company’s business suggests because investors, as a whole, don’t have enough money to spend on this particular stock.

Sector Rotation. This is part of portfolio management. Let’s say technology stocks may be doing well, but bank stocks may have even better potential. This is what you’ll hear as “sector rotation.” When portfolio and fund managers sell stocks in one sector (industry), good or bad, to buy stocks in the better industry at the moment. Why do they have to sell? Because they have a limited amount of funds. In order to buy something, they must sell something else first. Shift money from one place to another.

Government Policy and Economic Conditions. These so called “macro” or conditions on a big scale influence everyone’s opportunities and decisions. Housing credits provided by the government can shift investment money from the stock market to buying homes. Lower interest rates makes bonds and CD (certificate of deposits) poor investments, so people may choose to pay down debt or invest in stocks, gold, or other assets.

Psychology. When people feel confident about the economy and, more importantly, have a job and feel confident about their financial situation, they’re more likely to invest. The economy or a business may be doing just fine, but if investors prefer to keep their money as cash in the bank instead of buying shares of stock, the stock will have a hard time going up and may even fall. Cash also competes with stocks, gold, oil, and other assets.

Investors and Traders in the Market. All of these factors I’ve mentioned shows how other people’s actions will affect the market price. Each person, group, company, and government has it’s own agenda, it’s own risk tolerance. We all have a limit of how much we’re willing to or can afford to lose. These “cry uncle” points is where many people have decided to throw in the towel and sell. With many people selling at similar prices, the market is flooded with a large supply like at a firesale. Though it may be temporary, this flood of supply makes shares plentiful and thus cheap. Other sellers may join in and match the lower prices just to make their prices competitive. Thus, other people’s financial situation and investments they own can affect the overall market. It is important to know the types of investors and traders in your particular stock, stock industry, or other assets such as forex or gold.

Business Performance & Health. Lastly, this is what most investors focus on, but as you see it’s only one aspect of the supply and demand story. Not the most important, either. Over time, these so called fundamentals of business health and performance matter because the company can be bought out by another company below a certain price. Or, the company can use the cash it has to buy all of it’s shares back from you and other investors. Most companies do have some real value: cash, buildings, factories, intellectual property, and so on. In bad economies or bad seasons for a particular industry, the business may not do as well. Make less sales, accumulate less cash. Strong companies may use bad conditions to buy smaller struggling companies to expand their empire. These things also factor into how attractive or unattractive a stock is to an investor.

When Prices Go Up: More Demand for Stocks Than Supply Available

At some price, buyers will find a stock cheap enough to buy all the shares the sellers are selling. With whatever cash the buyers still have, they want to buy more. The buyers pay a bit more so the sellers are willing to let go of more of the shares they own. In this way, the buyer’s demand keeps pushing prices higher. This continues until a balance is reached where the buyer has bought all they want at a higher price and the seller isn’t willing to lower their price to entice the buyers to buy more.

When Prices Go Down: Less Demand for Stocks Than Supply Available

On the flip side, at some point buyers don’t think it’s worth buying more for high prices. They’ve accumulated a lot of inventory, whether if it’s stocks, gold, or other assets. If anyone who owns some inventory thinks there’s not much that’ll happen to make the stock more valuable, such as a cancer curing medication, they’ll want to sell the stock to take profits and get cash. As more owners sell (for whatever reason), the price continues to fall. The sellers are now providing more supply than demand. To entice a buyer, the holder of the stock keeps lowering the price.

Day 9: Before You Buy, Check Market Liquidity

May 2, 2013 in Explanations, Stock Market in 100 Days, Trading Step 3: Execution

What is market liquidity?  Why is it an important consideration when trading the markets?

The definition of a Liquid market is a market in which selling and buying can be accomplished with minimal effect in price.

Let’s look at a real world representation of market liquidity and see what conclusion you come to.  The screen shots shown below in two boxes are commonly referred to as a DOM (Depth of Market) or Trade Ladder.  Both markets are futures, but the idea is the same for other markets.

  • The center column shows the price of the market.  
  • The left of this center column is bid size and this measures how many bids are at each particular price.
  • The column to the right of the center column is the ask size and this measures how many asks are at each particular price. 

Please compare the number of bids (buy orders) and asks (sell orders) in each box.

  • Which market has more bid and asks? 
  • Which market has a smaller differential between the bid and ask Price?
  • If you were going to enter an order to buy (go long) 25 contracts, which market do you feel would be more able to absorb that order when using the definition for a liquid market mentioned above? 

The box on the left represents the market that best characterizes the correct answers to these questions. The market shown in the left box has a quantity of 219 bids and 474 asks at the current market (see orange underline). In contrast the market shown on the right box has 3 bids and 1 ask with not many bid and asks supporting those (see orange underline).  Now look at each center column (Price) which will display the minimum price size or tick, the market on the left is 1 tick difference whereas the market on the right has an 8 tick difference.

Day 9 - What is market liquidity v2

Here are a few additional questions to consider:

  • As an investor, trader, speculator, etc. does it make sense to participate in a market where the ability to enter and exit leaves as little impact on the market as possible? 
  • Which of the markets pictured above would generally be subject to larger price swings a liquid or non-liquid market? 

The real world of trading has costs that are associated with them.  You have trading costs like commissions, exchange fees, etc.  You must factor in the spread of the market price when determining your break even. It should be rather obvious then that a liquid market will allow you the chance at entering and exiting the market with minimum impact on market pricing.  A non-liquid market (picture box on right) certainly shows that any significant volume needing to be traded would be met with some larger price swings and wider price spreads.

The type of trading you plan on doing is also a very important consideration.  If you are going to buy and hold a position over a long period of time then deep liquidity is not very important.  A day trader does need deep liquidity and needs that liquidity during the times they are planning on trading.

The Macro Trader Letter

April 22, 2013 in

Weekly newsletter covering stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.  We run a model portfolio using ETF’s so that our research is accessible to both individual and institutional investors alike.

Every other week you will receive an extensive letter with tons of in depth research and on the other weeks you will receive a shorter version with summarized versions of our views and any new actionable trade ideas.

In addition to the weekly letter we also send out regular mid-week updates with trade ideas, research, commentary, etc.

Sample Issue of The Macro Trader (Dated April 18, 2013)

Sample Issue of The Daily Macro Mid-Week Update (Dated April 19, 2013)

Do You Sabotage Your Own Success? The Chasing Tail Syndrome

March 28, 2013 in Advice, Trading Step 2: Planning & Safety, Tutorials

Q&A with Blake Morrow, Chief Currency Strategist of WizeTrade, with daily live training broadcasts throughout the entire trading day.

Q:  You interact with a lot of beginner and intermediate traders everyday through your WizeTrade broadcasts.  What do you see new investors and traders wasting a lot of attention on?  What should they focus on instead?

I see a lot of traders not sticking to “what work” for them. Every trader spends so much of their trading career chasing their tail, or looking for the next best thing to make more money. They find something that works, and automatically assume there is going to be something that is better, that makes more money.

My suggestion: find what works for you. Not what works for someone else. And do it, and do it well. Trading profitably is about scaling a successful strategy.

Most of you know my team and I broadcast daily from 7AM ET through the NY stock market close. To access our live webinars daily (which are free, and our live in the market analysis has been for nearly 10 years now) just click on this link. Also, for those of you who trade during the European hours, join @casaro3 from 2:30-4:30 AM daily for the “London Calling” webinar. Just use the same link!

Blake Morrow

Follow me on Stocktwits or Twitter @pipczar

Want to Play in the World Poker Series? or Trade Instead?

February 12, 2013 in Blog

This one is as close as it gets to trading. But man are there some differences. To make any sort of real money, professional poker players have to play the big stakes games. And who else is playing the big stakes games? That’s right: professional poker players. This means that the best are most often competing against the best. They can’t prey on the amateurs if they want to make serious money. And if they play tournaments, they’re up against hundreds or thousands of other pros all vying for the big cash prize. No matter how good they are, their odds of actually winning the whole thing tend towards a coin toss. And while they have a good long-term edge, the short-term variance of poker is very high. So high in fact that extended multi-week deep drawdowns can be normal even for the not so super aggressive player.

Now think about yourself as a trader. You’re in one big pond called the market. And if you work on your game enough to become a skilled pro, you get to fish in this pond- a pond which includes all the amateurs. This means that while yes, you’re up against the pros, you also have millions of amateurs whose money you can take. You don’t have to be one of the very best in the world to make a great living at it. And if you do become one of the best in the world, you don’t have to sit across the other great ones and play heads-up to make your living. Your short-term variance is also much lower. You can realistically craft a style that makes money every single month with only moderate drawdowns. “Must be nice”, the poker pro thinks to himself.

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