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Technical Analysis Trading Webinar with TopNotch Tim Haefke

May 6, 2011 in MrTopStep

TopNotch Tim Haefke and MrTopStep’s Danny Riley is holding a stock market analysis webinar.  Topics to be discussed includes:

  • Institutional trades that occurred and affected the markets this week
  • Market technical analysis looking forward to the summer and how the markets may trade
  • Open forum Q&A for attendees to see what’s on everyone’s minds

Date: Saturday, May 7th
Time: 10:30AM CST – 12:00PM CST
Duration: 45-mins presentation, 30-mins Q&A

Locationhttp://mrtopstep.com/events/

Sponsored by NinjaTrader

Hosted by MrTopStep

How Last Month’s Nonfarm Payrolls Trade Affecting This Month Trader’s Decisions

March 31, 2011 in MrTopStep

MrTopStep contributor George Cavaligos of MF Global gives us a unique look into how floor traders at the CME and other trading desks off the floor are approaching the treasury futures trade for this month’s NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) employment report.  This is a great example and explanation of why market history matters, but there are different ways you have to analyze it.

Tomorrow’s NFP is the key.

Last month’s NonFarm Payroll data, the market had been breaking and breaking until the NFP data release.  The market was expecting a very large increase in the NFP numbers.  We got a decent increase and the market initially sold off quite hard and quite quickly, but then it snapped back in a vicscious short covering move.  This made it hard for traders to made adjustments to their trades and George thinks it hurt a lot of traders with short positions last time.

What does this mean for this month?

Traders are afraid something similar might happen again.  They are covering their short positions ahead of the NFP number instead of waiting to react to the data when it comes out.

The opportunity?

George Cavaligos thinks that opens up the downside for some risk and there may be several neat ways to play the short side with all those short sellers having already covered and stepping back from the market.

Trading Opportunities and Dangers in Volatile Market

March 14, 2011 in MrTopStep

MrTopStep’s Brian Shepard clues us in on what news and information floor traders are looking at and how they have been managing this volatile market.  Brian sums up the collective analysis of the various MrTopStep contributors that have appeared on the MrTopStep videos over the past weeks: play a bit more defensively, bet small to reduce risk given the uncertainties in the market in the foreseeable future.  There is a combination of global events such as the Crisis in the Middle East and Japan’s natural disaster that is causing commodity prices to rise, but also knee jerk reactions of Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve’s policies.

In a volatile market there are opportunities for both bulls and bears as the market trades in a large range.  However, Brian cautions people from overtrading an active market and be patient for finding good entries.

 

**Filmed on the trading floor at the CME Group. Produced by MrTopStep with MarketHEIST Media.

 

Price Action to Look for on Fibonacci Retracements with Bond Trader George Cavaligos

February 17, 2011 in MrTopStep

MrTopStep’s George Cavaligos with a short term market analysis of the 10-year Note Futures.  After  a sharp drop within the last month, the selling seems to have abated and the market is retracing a bit and digesting this move.  George uses fibonacci retracements to judge the major price levels the 10-year Note Futures may move up to, cautioning viewers to watch for a reversal behavior, which he doesn’t see yet.  Major levels of fibonacci retracements are the 0.382 level and 0.50 level.

*Filmed on the trading floor at the CME Group’s CBOT building.  Produced by MrTopStep with MarketHEIST Media

Rich Canlione Looks at S&P 500 Challenges in FED POMO, Bond Rates, and Egypt Crisis

February 11, 2011 in MrTopStep

MrTopStep’s Rich Canlione (The NKO Group) comes up from from the CME S&P 500 trading floor to share the traders’ view of the stock market.  Rich mentions a couple big reasons why the S&P 500′s rally could take a pause and maybe a pullback:

* Bond Yields are up from 4% – 4.8%, so bonds may look like a more attractive investment at these yields, thus competing for invested money currently in stocks.
* Egypt Crisis is still not settled.  Even with today’s news that Egypt’s President is stepping down and handing the power over to the military, that leaves the question of how the transition and who the replacing power is.
* Fed’s POMO decreased from $124B to $90B for this month.

Given these headwinds for the S&P 500, the technical support levels to note are: 8-day moving avg ~1312.75, 1303-1305 area, and 1262 on a larger pullback.

Rich Canlione with the NonFarm Payroll Reaction from CME Trading Floor and Changes to Note

February 4, 2011 in MrTopStep

From the trading floor at the CME Group, trader and VP of NKO Trading Rich Canlione with the weekly market summary.  Rich talks about the mother of all economic reports: the Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment Rate reports.  Rich shares that many traders and portfolio managers aren’t yet aware of some changes in the reporting of these economic numbers and this is why these economic numbers look quite different from last month’s data.  Also, Rich reviews where the S&P 500 is on a technical level above the 1300 price, how bonds are reacting to the economic data, and what that means for stocks, energy, and bonds.

Point and figure chart of the S&P 500 emini futures’ technical levels, trendlines, support and resistance.

Brian Shepard Says Egypt Crisis Bent the Stock Market, But Didn’t Break It

January 31, 2011 in MrTopStep

MrTopStep’s Brian Shepard shares what traders from the floor of CME Group are concerned with. Lingering Questions about Egypt and the Middle East creates a two-sided market as concerns over policy changes, both foreign and domestic have changed the calm feel of the bull trend.  This morning, the markets are stuck in a range after Friday’s selloff.

Floor Trader: Danny Riley Traders’ View for Month End and S&P 500 at 1300

January 28, 2011 in MrTopStep

MrTopStep’s Danny Riley gives the inside view from the CME trading floor.  What are traders and hedge fund managers looking at for January 2011 month end and the challenge of S&P 500 at 1300?

*This is a MrTopStep and MarketHEIST Media produced video

Technical Analysis: TopNotch’s Ascending Right Triangle Pattern and Fib Extension

January 28, 2011 in MrTopStep

Tim Haefke, aka “TopNotch,” called for a top in the S&P 500 futures, or Eminis, on his last video on January 21, 2011 by applying his technical analysis of an ascending right triangle pattern and fibonacci extension from the April 2010-July 2010 range.  This is a great example of an expert technical analyst applying the right analysis to the current market situation, and determining the likely scenarios so others can use that information to trade.  The two videos show the before and after of this trade.

Filmed in the CBOT building in Chicago.

*This is a MrTopStep and MarketHEIST Media produced video.

Bond Futures Reaction to FED Announcement and The Trade with George Cavaligos

January 27, 2011 in MrTopStep

Brand new makeover of the MrTopStep floor trader financial markets video we here at MarketHEIST produce.  Thanks to the CME Group where these floor traders trade, the new home for the MrTopStep video is the professional broadcast studio at the CME Group.  Filmed daily with floor traders from down in the pit, the new MrTopStep video market updates will take you deep inside the professional trading world.

Today, Thursday 1.27.11, MF Global’s treasuries trader George Cavaligos gives a rundown of how the bond futures traded after yesterday’s FED announcement and what the implications are with the extension of QE2.  Also, George covers the treasuries from a big view, with the 10-year notes stuck in a range since December 2010.

TopNotch’s Technical Analysis Recap for S&P Emini Futures Trades Since July ’10

January 21, 2011 in MrTopStep

Tim Haefke, aka TopNotch, returns onto the MrTopStep video market updates from the CME in Chicago.  TopNotch reviews the trend move since the July 2010 low and identifies the recent 1290′s high in the S&P as an expected target.  Also, TopNotch discusses his analysis of the open interest and how that shows the buyers are still in control, but probably not for long.

See TopNotch’s Technical Analysis Daily Service for S&P, NASDAQ, and Bond Futures at TopNotchTrading.com

MrTopStep Video: Danny Riley on a Slow DEC Quad Witching Friday

December 17, 2010 in MrTopStep

A disappointingly slow December Quad Witching Friday with the S&P 500 stuck in a 3.20 point range and volume very dry.  Danny mentions that in the past Quad Witching expiration days were often huge trading days with 1 Billion contracts traded at the open, but not today.  What is left is the Stock Market Index Rebalancing for the S&P 400, S&P 500, and S&P 600, which stocks get added, and which gets removed.

Obama Tax Cut Extension & Irish Bailout Allows Money Managers to Continue Chasing Performance

December 7, 2010 in MrTopStep

There are estimates of three trillion dollars parked on the sidelines! Both fund managers and clients are anticipating year end statements and pressure is leading up to SHOW ME THE MONEY! Backstopped by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke QE both here and abroad and President Obama announcing the extension of Bush Tax Cuts, unemployment benefits and payroll deductions. The seasonal winds appear to be forming a firm nor’easter. Also, the S&P DEC to MAR contract rollover continues to keep the market in flux as big traders focus more on the contract roll than putting on positions for trades.

12.6.10 S&P Futures Light Trading After Ben Bernanke’s 60 Minutes Interview

December 6, 2010 in MrTopStep

Danny Riley returns on MrTopStep with a brief S&P Futures market update.  The index market futures were a little weak at the open following last night’s Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s 60 Minutes CBS interview.  The markets cross the board were flat in light trading as we approach the December to March futures contract rollover, a transition time during which Danny says may traders are cautious.  Given the fact that it’s “Mutual Fund Monday,” there is some upside bias which may kick in during the final trading hour.

MrTopStep 12.3.10 Stock Index Markets Update: How to Trade the Closing Imbalance?

December 3, 2010 in MrTopStep

MrTopStep’s Brian Shepard brings us his view from the S&P pits to wrap up this trading week.  Brian says despite the disappointing Unemployment Report the market has bounced back and the order flow has slowed compared to Thursday’s move.

More interesting is Brian’s explanations of Closing Imbalances they report on their IM service and sometimes publicly on twitter.  According to Brian, imbalances are simply where there is an imbalance of buy or sell orders.  Near the close, there are closing imbalances numbers reported, but that does not guarantee a move in either direction, with or against the imbalance.  A big buy order may soak up all the sell imbalances, or a big sell order may push the sell imbalance to even more extremes.  Closing imbalances are simply another data point to be aware of during trading.